June Sales Cool in The Toronto Real Estate Market

June home sales were up compared to last year, but remained below the March 2021 peak and were lower than the number of transactions reported for May 2021, consistent with the regular seasonal trend. The average selling price in June increased by double digits compared to last year as well, but the annual rate of increase moderated compared to the previous three months. 11,106 sales were reported in June 2021 – up by 28.5 per cent compared to June 2020.  Keep in mind June of 2020 was in the middle of the Covid lockdown. 

Looking at the GTA as a whole, year-over-year sales growth was strongest in the condominium apartment segment, both in the City of Toronto and some of the surrounding suburbs. On a month-over-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted sales continued to trend lower in June. We have seen market activity transition from a record pace to a robust pace over the last three months. While this could provide some relief for home buyers in the near term, a resumption of population growth based on immigration is only months away. While the primary focus of policymakers has been artificially curbing demand, the only long-term solution to affordability is increasing supply to accommodate perpetual housing needs in a growing region.

In all major market segments, year-over-year growth in sales well outpaced growth in new listings over the same period, pointing to the continuation of tight market conditions characterized by competition between buyers and strong price growth. On a month-over-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted average prices edged lower in June. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 17 per cent over the same time period to $1,089,536. While price growth continued to be driven by the low-rise segments of the market, it is important to note that the average condominium apartment price was up by more than eight per cent compared to June 2020, well outstripping inflation.

While sales do appear to have peaked this year and TRREB is no longer reporting record months in terms of home sales, first quarter activity was higher than expected. March home sales, at over 15,000, represented an all-time monthly record. With year-over-year sales growth continuing to outpace new listings growth, the forecast average selling price has also been revised upward to $1,070,000. Home sales soared at the start of the year, with a huge sales record in the first quarter. However, the record pace of sales has run its course as pent-up demand has increasingly been satisfied in the absence of normal population growth. With this said, a persistent lack of inventory across most segments of the market and the announcement that interest rates are expected to stay low I see the market continuing to be a healthy market with sales flattening somewhat in the coming months.

The summer time is a great time to keep an eye on the market if you are planning on buying. With listing inventory being higher then the Spring and many consumers on vacation the summer months can pose great buying opportunities for buyers. If you are planning a move and would like to discuss your goals feel welcome to call or email me anytime. I would be glad to meet with you to discuss your real estate goals. 

Have a great July!  

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