The Toronto Real Estate Board Forecasts Strong Demand for Real Estate in 2021

The outlook for the GTA real estate market is healthy with strong buying intentions, a near-record sales forecast of more than 100,000, and a record average selling price over $1 million. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has just released its must-read Market Year in Review & Outlook 2021 Report and eagerly awaited digital digest containing TRREB’s annual market outlook, up-to-date Ipsos consumer polling results, the most recent Altus new home and commercial statistics, rental market trends, research on innovative approaches to bring on more housing supply and mortgage market trends.

“The pandemic certainly resulted in an unprecedented year for real estate in 2020, but it hasn’t put a damper on the overall demand,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB Chief Market Analyst. “Looking ahead, a strengthening economy and renewed GTA population growth following widespread vaccinations will support the continued demand for both ownership and rental housing. But over the long run, the supply of listings will remain an issue, particularly in low-rise segments

Strong sales growth will be supported by continued economic recovery, including jobs and record or near-record lows for borrowing costs. The pace of new condominium apartment listings will start to ebb, especially in the second half of the year. With low-rise listings remaining constrained, expect total new listings to come in at the 160,000 mark. Market conditions for low-rise homes, including detached houses, will remain very tight, with sales rising at a faster pace than listings. The overall average selling price for all home types and areas combined will eclipse the $1,000,000 mark for the first time, reaching $1,025,000 and representing a year-over-year increase of 10 per cent. While mortgage deferrals were initially a concern early on in the pandemic, Mortgage Professionals Canada does not anticipate any pronounced uptick in mortgage delinquencies that would create systemic concerns as we move through 2021. Most property owners who took advantage of mortgage deferrals did so out of an abundance of caution rather than financial necessity and therefore have resumed their regular payments. January home sales amounted to 6,928 – up by more than 50 per cent compared to January 2020. This strong start to 2021 included sales growth across all major segments, including condominium apartments, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding GTA regions. New listings were also up on a year-over-year basis in January, but not by the same annual rate as sales. This means market conditions tightened compared to January 2020, resulting in the continuation of double-digit growth in the MLS® Home Price Index and the average selling price. The average selling price for January 2021 was up by 15.5 per cent to $967,885 year over year. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 11.9 per cent over the same period. Price growth was driven by the low-rise market segments, while the average condo apartment price was down in Toronto. However, if we continue to see condo sales growth outstrip condo listings growth, we could start to see renewed growth in condo prices later this year.

2020 was a roller coaster year with unpredictable ups and downs, but the second half of 2020 was marked by consecutive monthly records for home sales and average selling prices. The end result was the third best annual sales total on record and a new record for the average selling price. The suburbs experienced the strongest sales growth, especially in single-family homes with the average selling price topping out at almost $930,000.

For the full market report click the link below:

As always if you have any questions on the real estate market in Toronto feel welcome to call or email me at 416-856-5408 or I would be glad to answer any questions you have on the market. Stay safe!


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